Friday, January 10, 2014

Warlords Release Speculation

It's that time for many of us, isn't it? Even though I represent the more casual type of player, my guild has finished up what we've identified as our current content---a bit late to the party at that, yet it appears we've still quite a bit of time left in Pandaria before we're on to our next adventure. Undoubtedly, the mind can't help but wander to just when that next adventure might take place.

You've likely heard---perhaps even believed---the prominent rhetoric about faster patch cycles and more frequent expansion releases. MoP's pace has been pretty good, right? Warlords seemed to be in good shape at Blizzcon, and we even had people saying the development feels like it was farther along than MoP's, comparatively speaking. Hell, I felt pretty confident we'd see the odd, but not impossible late-spring/early-summer release.

This begs the big question: does the recent announcement that there will be another PvP season before MoP's end completely shoot that possibility out of the sky? Not just yet.

A look at precedents

I stumbled across this post from Pwnarii on the forums. They've gone ahead and listed all of the PvP seasons, their respective lengths, and the computed average. Have a look for yourself, but I've snatched some numbers and listed them here:

Average season length: 24 weeks (approximately 6 months)
Longest season: 38 weeks (approximately 9 months)
Shortest season: 17 weeks (approximately 4 months)

The two complete seasons we've seen in MoP thus far have run 22 (S12) and 26 weeks (S13). By my count, we are embarking on the 17th week of Season 14, and we haven't yet seen a timeline for Season 15 or been given an indication when Season 14 is expected to come to a close. Whether Season 14 ends up being on the shorter side or looks more like our average will have great bearing on Warlord's release.

Looking back farther, Seasons 4, 5 and 6 were back-to-back-to-back short seasons. What's more, the mammoth, 38-week-long season came at the close of Cataclysm, so we do have some precedent for the last PvP season of the expansion dragging on. Of course, we're hoping that doesn't happen. While I don't think the majority of players in our guild are quite ready for new content, that time is fast approaching. I for one am not excited about the prospect of at least six more months of Mists of Pandaria. 

So I have some if-then predictions. You heard it here, folks:

If Seasons 14 & 15 are on the shorter side of the average, then Warlords will be released between May 13th and June 10th. 

If Seasons 14 & 15 are of average length, then Warlords will be released between June 17th and August 26th. 

If Seasons 14 & 15 prove to be longer than average, then Warlords will be released between September 2nd and September 30th.

Of course, any combination of short/long/average will totally muck up these thoughts here, but there's the fun! Warlords hitting the PTR will help us focus our speculation, but I'm willing to bet we're not going to see that happen for at least three months.

What do you think this all means?


  1. I definitely think you guys are all super optimistic and hopeful! I think if they had a 4-month PVP season slated to fill the long gap, they might've forgone it and just let us all drool over the beta and PTR stuff. In other words, I think we're in for a really long wait, and the PVP season was tossed in to try to keep us occupied. September release date at the minimum, IMO, and I wouldn't be remotely surprised at November.

    1. Ahh, so you mention my greatest of fears. I am NOT a PVPer and if it we get an indication it will be that long, I may have to take a break. Even a one night/week raid schedule I think I'll get burned out on the content.

  2. My guess is October release, maybe in November in close vicinity of the tenth anniversary. But in no case before August. If that was so we would already hear something about at least alpha tests, if not about closed beta invites being sent out. They did say they want to release expansions faster, that Warlords are further along than MoP was comparatively speaking, but that does not indicate they will do it.

    1. A 10-year anniversary isn't a bad reason to have a late-year release, either. :)